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Is Donald Trump a winner in election and new chain?

October 28, 2016 Headline News No Comments Print Print Email Email

egtmedia59The Trump Organisation, which runs hotels, golf courses and other Trump-branded businesses, is developing a new line of hotels aimed at “today’s thinkers and makers” – while some who had written Donald Trump off in the US election are having second thoughts.

Demonstrators have swarmed Trump hotels to protest against the Republican presidential nominee’s public comments and to make their objection to him clear.

Others however, both in the industry and outside, are reconsidering strident criticism of Trump, as suspicions grow that he just might win.

Donald Trump

Donald Trump

On the hotel front, Trump’s new chain, which launches next year, will be called Scion. The development would put Trump Hotels alongside other hotel chains which run secondary or parallel chains under different brand names.

Meanwhile, Booking.com has found that bookings of Trump-named properties are holding steady in the run-up to the election, indicating that threats to boycott the properties may be failing to bite.

On the electoral front, although Trump is still very much the underdog, Bloomberg news service reported yesterday that in the key battleground state of Florida, polls indicate that Trump has 45% to Hillary Clinton’s 43% among likely voters when third-party candidates are included. In a hypothetical two-way race, Trump has 46% to Clinton’s 45%.

Trump Inernational Hotel, Washington DC

Trump Inernational Hotel, Washington DC

Several polling experts are going further and predicting that Trump will win the election and become the 45th president of the United States. One of America’s top forecasters, Professor Helmut Norpoth, from the Department of Political Science at Stony Brook University in New York, has correctly predicted the past five US elections.

Using a statistical model based on previous election results (past elections, general elections, and primary elections), he predicts that Trump will triumph in the coming general election, which will be held in just 11 days, on Tuesday week, 8 November 2016.

Trump Panama

Trump Panama

Norpoth’s forecast results are uncannily similar to the result of the Brexit poll in Britain.

Norpoth said: “My forecast says that he [Trump] is going to win 52.5% of the two-party vote, that would give Hillary 47.5%. I attach something like 87% certainty that he’s going to win.”

(In the Brexit poll, out of interest, 52% voted to leave the European Union and 48% voted to remain.)

Other pollsters disagree with Norpoth’s projection of the outcome.

 

Written by Peter Needham

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