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Optimistic About The Future: Hong Kong Consumer Confidence Rebounds, Mastercard Survey Reveals

August 14, 2015 Statistics & Trends No Comments Email Email

Despite a drop in consumer confidence levels in a number of markets in Asia Pacific, consumers in Hong Kong remain optimistic about the future, showing a significant rebound compared to the second half of 2014, according to the latest MasterCard Index of Consumer Confidence for the first half of this year.

Overall consumer confidence in the city for the first half of 2015 has climbed to its highest level since the second half of 2011 to 61.2 Index points, up 20.3 Index points compared to the last half. Significant improvements are seen across all economic indicators of the Index over the past six months, including Employment, Economy, Regular Income, Stock Market andQuality of Life.

Local consumers are very optimistic about their Regular Income outlook (from 64.7 to 81.6 Index points), followed by their outlook on the local Stock Market (from 45.2 to 80.0 Index points).  Employment, Economy and Quality of Life aspects also recorded considerable improvements compared to the second half of 2014, each surging more than 10 Index points.

Hong Kong’s Index of Consumer Confidence over the Past Four Years

  H1
2011
H2
2011
H1

2012

H2
2012
H1
2013
H2
2013
H1
2014
H2

2014

H1

2015

Employment 70.4 25.7 58.0 56.9 54.0 57.2 63.6 38.9 57.9
Economy 66.4 19.9 41.3 47.0 42.3 45.2 43.6 27.1 46.1
Regular Income 80.6 59.4 78.8 83.6 77.1 77.0 76.5 64.7 81.6
Stock Market 79.1 23.3 39.4 63.9 48.7 55.0 57.8 45.2 80.0
Quality of Life 46.3 21.1 41.8 43.1 33.3 32.5 30.6 28.7 40.6
MasterIndex 68.6 29.9 51.8 58.9 51.1 53.4 54.4 40.9 61.2
                   
Respondents aged 30 or below 71.2 31.4 58.1 55.8 52.7 53.1 48.7 57.9 64.4
Respondents aged over 30 68.9 26.0 49.6 60.1 50.6 53.8 56.5 35.7 59.8

“In view of a fall in consumer confidence in some Asia Pacific markets, it is encouraging to see that Hong Kong recorded its highest overall consumer confidence level since the second half of 2011, with a generally positive outlook across various economic aspects among local consumers. In particular, we are pleased to observe noticeable improvements in employment, economy and quality of life compared to a relatively pessimistic sentiment in the previous half.” said Anna Yip, head of Hong Kong and Macau, MasterCard.

Consumers in Asia Pacific remain generally optimistic about the future, but there are significant variations between markets in the region. Australia is the only pessimistic market at 39.5 Index points, while India, with 93.1 Index points is the only market in Asia Pacific where consumers are ‘extremely optimistic’ about economic prospects over the next six months.

In China, consumers continue to hold a very optimistic outlook (85.9 Index points), reaching its peak since China debuted in the Index in the second half of 1996. Consumer confidence in Taiwan also improved with a substantial increase of 15.8 Index points to 49.6 Index points, bringing Taiwanese consumers to a neutral versus pessimistic sentiment towards overall economic outlook compared to the second half of last year.

The latest MasterCard Index of Consumer Confidence (“Index”) is based on a survey conducted between May 2015 and June 2015 on 8,718 respondents aged 18 to 64 in 17 markets across Asia Pacific. This is the 45th survey of Consumer Confidence conducted since 1993.

MasterCard Index of Consumer Confidence H1 2015

H1 2015 Current Status Change from last half
Asia Pacific 66.1 Optimistic 0.6 Stable +
Australia 39.5 Pessimistic 5.4 Some Improvement
Bangladesh 75.3 Very Optimistic -8.0 Some Deterioration
China 85.9 Very Optimistic 0.6 Stable +
Hong Kong 61.2 Optimistic 20.3 Extreme Improvement
India 93.1 Extremely Optimistic 1.5 Stable +
Indonesia 64.3 Optimistic -25.8 Extreme Deterioration
Japan 56.6 Neutral + 22.3 Extreme Improvement
Korea 40.0 Neutral – -3.6 Stable –
Malaysia 44.9 Neutral – -5.0 Stable –
Myanmar 81.6 Very Optimistic -15.6 Significant Deterioration
New Zealand 57.7 Neutral + 1.3 Stable +
Philippines 81.4 Very Optimistic 4.3 Stable +
Singapore 65.3 Optimistic 4.4 Stable +
Sri Lanka 67.5 Optimistic N/A N/A
Taiwan 49.6 Neutral – 15.7 Significant Improvement
Thailand 72.8 Optimistic -10.9 Significant Deterioration
Vietnam 86.9 Very Optimistic 1.7 Stable +

Methodology 

Respondents were asked five questions pertaining to their six-month outlook on the economy, their employment prospects, the local stock market, their regular income prospects, and their quality of life. The results of their responses were converted in five component indexes which were subsequently averaged to form the MasterCard Index of Consumer Confidence (MICC) score. The MICC Index score and the 5 component index scores range from 0 – 100 where 0 represents maximum pessimism, 100 represents maximum optimism and 50 represents neutrality.

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