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PATA Visitor Arrival Forecasts: Arrivals Well on Track with Forecasts

May 29, 2015 Association No Comments Email Email

International Visitor Arrivals to 25 Asia Pacific destinations that have released first quarter 2015 data show a combined inbound total of more than 101 million. This is just 1.9% off the forecast volume for that period as predicted in the ‘PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2015-2019 – Volume II’ released today.

“These numbers highlight the accuracy of these forecasts which reliably predict turning points in the visitor projections for 38 Asia Pacific destinations as they accelerate or, as in a few cases, contract their foreign inbound figures during 2015,” said PATA CEO Mario Hardy. “The availability of these forecasts on a quarterly basis provides destinations with a timely mechanism for unnamed (15)adjusting their promotional strategies to take advantage of surges in outbound travel from particular origin markets and to re-deploy resources to their best advantage.”

Across the region, the Americas (2 destinations) is performing at 4.9% above the first quarter forecasts, while South Asia (2 destinations) is performing at 3.2% above them. Northeast Asia (6 destinations) is just 2.2% behind the first quarter forecast, while six destinations in Southeast Asia are collectively -4.2% behind the forecast volumes. The Pacific (9 destinations) is less than one percent (-0.7%) under forecast.

Year-on-year, the first quarter results for this cluster of 25 destinations is 5.1% better than the first quarter of 2014, with an additional 4.9 million arrivals added to the collective total for the period. The strongest performers in terms of period-to-period growth are Palau (+46.6%), Japan (+43.7%), Thailand (+23.5%), Sri Lanka (+13.6%) and Korea (ROK) (+13.4%).

China has reported a first quarter gain for the first time since 2012 and, with growth of four percent, has added 1.195 million additional arrivals to the count over that of the first quarter of 2014. While it is a significant increase, it ranks third behind Japan (+1.257 million) and Thailand (+1.501 million).

“With the speed of change today, it is increasingly important that we have reliable benchmarks against which to measure success and failure in specific markets,” continued Mr. Hardy. “This is why the PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts are such a vital tool for tourism marketers, planners and strategists, especially this second volume which provides details at quarterly and annual levels by origins/destinations for inbound arrivals as well as projections for outbound travel and receipts.”

The PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2015-2019 are a joint production of the Tourism Forecasting Unit within the School of Hotel and Tourism Management (SHTM) at The Hong Kong Polytechnic University (PolyU) and PATA, and provide detailed projections for individual source and generating markets at both quarterly and annual levels over the same period, along with a number of other metrics including tourism receipts and where data availability permits, departures predictions.

For more details about the availability of these forecasts, please contact the Strategic Intelligence Centre at

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