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Rental cars and all others ‘to be driverless electric’

May 26, 2017 Headline News 1 Comment Email Email

Attention rental car fleet managers – petrol fuelled cars are set to disappear within eight years, and the main reason is not the price of petrol.

The reason is maintenance and insurance, according to experts.

Stanford University economist Tony Seba says the Tesla Model S  has 18 moving parts, 100 times fewer than a combustion-engine car. Four of the moving parts are wheels and the steering wheel is the fifth, reducing the number even further.

“Maintenance is essentially zero,” Seba told Britain’s Daily Telegraph. “That is why Tesla is offering infinite-mile warranties. You can drive it to the moon and back and they will still warranty it.”

The big impact will not happen yet, while the Tesla cars cost about AUD 130,000, but will coincide with the next batch, when prices are likely to fall to about AUD 60,000.

Seba forecasts that petrol or diesel cars, buses, or trucks will cease being sold anywhere in the world within eight years, as the entire market for land transport switches to electrification. Oil prices will collapse (a boon for airlines) and the petroleum industry, and those who invest in it, may take a battering.

The future, Seba says, is self-drive electric vehicles (EVs), which will take over rapidly. They are 10 times cheaper to run than petrol or diesel-based cars and have an expected lifespan of about 1.5 million kilometres. They are also much safer, so insurance costs will dive.

The transportation value chain will deliver 6 trillion passenger miles in 2030 (an increase of 50% over 2021) at a quarter of the cost (USD 393 billion versus USD 1481 billion).

“We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history,” Seba says.

For the full report, see: Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030

The report is the first in a series that analyse the impacts of disruption, sector by sector, across the economy. The compilers aim to spark a global conversation about the threats and opportunities of technology-driven disruption, and focus attention on choices that could lead to a more equitable, healthy, resilient and stable society.

Written by Peter Needham

Currently there is "1 comment" on this Article:

  1. Dave says:

    Easy said with all the people recharging that with make power shortages , just look at SA then we with use diesel gensets and also how will tourism progress in the rural or outback as the cars there will need long range which only can be obtained by diesel or petrol engines.

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