The World Tourism Organisation says domestic demand is expected to recover faster than international demand. Most members of a WTO panel of experts expects to see signs of recovery by the final quarter of 2020 but mostly in 2021. Based on previous crises, leisure travel is expected to recover quicker than business travel, particularly travel for visiting friends and relatives . The estimates regarding the recovery of international travel is more positive in Africa and the Middle East with most experts foreseeing recovery still in 2020. Experts in the Americas are the least optimistic and least likely to believe in recovery in 2020, while in Europe and Asia the outlook is mixed, with half of the experts expecting to see recovery within this year. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a 22% fall in international tourist arrivals during the first quarter of 2020 the WTO says and the crisis could lead to an annual decline of between 60% and 80% when compared with 2019 figures. The impact of the loss of demand in international travel could translate into:
- Loss of 850 million to 1.1 billion international tourists
- Loss of US$910 billion to US$1.2 trillion in export revenues from tourism
- 100 to 120 million direct tourism jobs at risk
Edited by Ian Mcintosh
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