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Far more Australians expect a troubled than a peaceful 2019

January 22, 2019 Financial No Comments Email Email


Although more Australians believe 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018, this is well down from the record high reached at the end of 2002 in the run-up to the 2003 Iraq War when 76% of Australians said 2003 would be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2002. In the same year a record low 2% expected 2003 to be a ‘more peaceful year’ than 2002.

Australians are less concerned about 2019 than their counterparts in New Zealand. Over two-fifths of New Zealanders (42%) believe 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018 while a tenth of New Zealanders (10%) expect 2019 will be a ‘more peaceful year’ than 2018. See here for more details on the New Zealand results.

This special Roy Morgan web survey was conducted in mid-December with a cross-section of 1,028 Australians aged 18+.

Next Year – Troubled, peaceful or the same? (Australia)

Source: Roy Morgan telephone, SMS and web surveys in Australia 1982-2018 with an average of 1,000 Australians aged 18+ interviewed each year.Question in mid-December 2018: “Do you expect the coming 2019 year to be for the world a more peaceful one, a more troubled one, or more of the same as 2018?”

Analysis by Age & Gender – Next Year: Troubled, peaceful or the same

Source: This special Roy Morgan web survey was conducted in mid-December with a cross-section of 1,028 Australians aged 18+.

Australia’s men (40%) are more concerned that 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018 than women (35%) while slightly more women (11%) than men (10%) say 2019 will be a ‘more peaceful year’ than 2018.

It turns out expectations that 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018 is heavily correlated to the age of a respondent. Only 32% of 18-24yr old respondents expect 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018, however this rises with each subsequent age group including 35% of 25-34yr olds, 37% of 35-49yr olds and 43% of those aged 50 years and older.

Australians aged 50 years and older are the least hopeful about prospects for peace this year. Only 5% of Australians in this age group say 2019 will be a ‘more peaceful year’ than 2018.

Total

Australia

Gender Age Total

NZ

Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-49 50+
% % % % % % % %
Troubled 38 40 35 32 35 37 43 42
Same 47 46 48 45 46 47 49 42
Peaceful 10 10 11 12 13 13 5 10
Don’t know 5 4 6 11 6 3 3 6
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100


Analysis by States & Regions – Next Year: Troubled, peaceful or the same

Source: This special Roy Morgan web survey was conducted in mid-December with a cross-section of 1,028 Australians aged 18+.

Analysing by State shows respondents in all States are expecting 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ than a ‘more peaceful year’ compared to 2018 although many respondents expect 2019 will be ‘the same’.

It is respondents in Tasmania (44%) and New South Wales (43%) that are the most concerned that 2019 will be a ‘more troubled year’ compared to around a third of respondents in the other four States.

There are also more optimists in Tasmania than any other State with 16% expecting 2019 to be a ‘more peaceful year’ than 2018 ahead of 13% of Victorian respondents.

A majority of respondents in South Australia (65%), Queensland (55%), Victoria (54%) and Western Australia (53%) believe 2019 will be ‘the same’ as 2019 or ‘don’t know’.

Respondents in the Country (39%) are marginally more concerned about 2019 being a ‘more troubled year’ than 2018 compared to those in the City (37%).

States City/ Country
Total

Australia

NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS City Country Total

NZ

% % % % % % % % % %
Troubled 38 43 33 35 37 33 44 37 39 42
Same 47 43 48 52 46 61 36 47 47 42
Peaceful 10 10 13 10 10 2 16 12 8 10
Don’t know 5 4 6 3 7 4 4 4 6 6
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100


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