Liberal leadership fight boosts ALP support, but ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence also up after Liberal leadership resolved

The latest Morgan Poll shows Federal support for the L-NP down 3.5% to 46% following a week of leadership upheaval for the Federal Liberal Party boosting ALP support by 3.5% to 54% on a two-party preferred basis according to interviewing conducted on the weekend of August 25/26, 2018 with 821 electors.

“The Liberal Party’s leadership battle last week has cost the L-NP Government significant support in the electorate with the ALP now a clear leader on a two-party preferred basis. The ALP increased two-party support by 3.5% to 54% over the course of the week and now has a clear election winning lead over the L-NP on 46%.
“Amazingly, the L-NP started the week only just behind on a two-party preferred basis with the L-NP on 49.5% cf. 50.5% ALP. Former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull even suggested in his final press conference as Prime Minister that Liberal Party internal polling had the Government ahead of the Opposition.

“In addition to being competitive on a two-party preferred basis the Morgan Poll showed that Turnbull remained a clear preferred Prime Minister even in the midst of leadership challenges.

“On Wednesday last week, after Turnbull had survived a leadership challenge and looked set to face a new one, Turnbull was preferred to Shorten as ‘Better PM’: Turnbull 54% cf. Shorten 46%. This compared favourably to his challenger Peter Dutton who was well behind Shorten on the same measure: Shorten 62% cf. Dutton 38%.

“The same Better PM question showed then Treasurer, and now Prime Minister, Scott Morrison neck-and-neck with Shorten. Shorten 50.5% cf. Morrison 49.5% as Better PM.
“Today’s ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Rating increased by 2.4pts to 116.5. Interviewing for Consumer Confidence was conducted over the weekend and began the day after Morrison was sworn in as Australia’s 30^th Prime Minister early on Friday evening.

“In contrast to the increase in Consumer Confidence indicating a relaxed view of the performance of the broader economy, Australians are clearly concerned about the Government’s performance. Roy Morgan Government Confidence plunged by 11pts on the weekend to 84 with only 33.5% (down 6.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’.

“It is a rare occurrence that Consumer Confidence and Government Confidence move in such different directions however the leadership issues at the top of the Government are a clear catalyst on this occasion.

“The fact Australians are able to separate what are expected to be short-term Federal Government leadership concerns from worries about the performance of the broader Australian economy should provide comfort to businesses, and in particular retailers, heading towards the important Christmas retailing season over the next few months.

“Although the past week has undoubtedly cost the new Morrison-led Government support in the short-term the good news for the new Government is that Australians already appear to be shaking off any concerns about Federal Government leadership woes.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party would receive your first preference?”

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Finding No. 7716 – This Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted via face-to-face  interviewing over the last two weekends with 886 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekend of August 18/19, 2018 and a further 821 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekend of August 25/26, 2018. Of electors surveyed on August 18/19, 2018 5% did not name a party and of electors surveyed on August 25/26, 2018 6% did not name a party.

Federal Voting Intention Summary – House of Reps (%)

Two-Party Preferred Vote (%)